Sunrise on the Reaping box office tracking has turned sharply upwards overnight. In an exclusive box office update, Deadline reports that advance ticket sales for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping are running well ahead of Universal’s Wicked at the same point in the sales cycle — and the film’s projected domestic opening now starts at $80 million or more.
The update, which landed late on 6 November in the United States and is circulating widely this morning, is the strongest signal yet that Haymitch Abernathy’s story could become one of the biggest theatrical events of the year. Presales are already the best Lionsgate has seen for any title since COVID, and they are also ahead of Michael, the music biopic that opened to $97.2 million in North America.
Image Credit: Lionsgate — Official Trailer via YouTube
For a franchise that last appeared on the big screen three years ago with a far softer opening, the jump in expectations is striking. Just a week ago, the forecast for Sunrise on the Reaping sat at $60 million to $70 million. The presale surge has now pushed the floor up by a full $20 million, and some trackers believe the real number could be higher still. Here is what the new tracking says, why the demand is this strong, and what it means for Lionsgate’s $185 million gamble.
The $80 Million Floor: How the Forecast Jumped in a Week
The headline number from Deadline’s update is the new opening floor of $80 million or more for the domestic opening weekend. That is a significant jump from the $60 million to $70 million range that was circulating only a week earlier, and the current opening range is now pegged at $80 million to $100 million.
The reason for the revision is simple: tickets are selling faster than expected. Presales opened on 28 October, the same day the film had its London premiere, and the pace has held up through the first week of sales. Deadline understands the advance sales are well ahead of Wicked at the same stage, which is a serious comparison — Wicked went on to open to $112.5 million in November 2024.
Lionsgate has not released official presale figures, so the comparison is still based on trade reporting and tracker data rather than studio numbers. Even so, the direction of travel is clear. Every new forecast for Sunrise on the Reaping box office performance has moved upwards since tickets went on sale, and the film now looks like the movie to beat this Thanksgiving.
Presales vs Wicked and Michael: The Head-to-Head Numbers
The comparison that has caught everyone’s attention is the head-to-head race with Wicked. At the same point in the sales cycle, Sunrise on the Reaping is ahead of the Universal musical, and it is also ahead of Michael, which debuted to $97.2 million in North America. For Lionsgate, these are the best advance ticket sales for any of its titles since the pandemic.
Some trackers think the film can go much higher than the $80 million floor. Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office, two tracking accounts that have followed the presales closely since 28 October, have estimated that the movie could open to over $100 million, with Empire City calling that number a virtual lock. Prediction platform Polymarket puts the chance of a debut north of $100 million at 75%.
Deadline itself is more cautious, and that caution is worth noting. Because films driven by female audiences can often be front-loaded, the trade paper has set the floor at $80 million or more rather than committing to the $100 million figure. There was a similar concern two years ago that Wicked would be front-loaded, and those presales ultimately turned into a $112.5 million opening — so the caution cuts both ways.
The last film in the franchise, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, opened to $44.6 million in the United States in 2023 before reaching $166.3 million domestic and $394 million worldwide. An $80 million opening would be nearly double that debut, and a $100 million opening would be more than double it. That is the scale of the turnaround the presales are now pointing to.
Why the Demand Is This Strong: Book, Trailer and Cast
The presale surge did not come out of nowhere. The source material gave the film a strong start: Suzanne Collins’ novel Sunrise on the Reaping sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, the biggest debut for any title in the Hunger Games book series. In the United States alone, it sold 1.2 million copies — more than twice the opening sales of The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and over three times that of Mockingjay.
The final trailer, released on 29 October, kept the momentum going, and a new broadcast spot aired on CNN during the United States election night coverage on 4 November. The film’s marketing has leaned hard on the return to Panem and on the story of a young Haymitch, and the response from fans has been immediate.
The cast has plenty of appeal too. Joseph Zada stars as the young District 12 tribute Haymitch Abernathy, while Whitney Peak plays his girlfriend Lenore Dove Baird. The ensemble also includes Jesse Plemons, Elle Fanning, Kieran Culkin, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Ralph Fiennes and Glenn Close. Longtime fans have another reason to go: Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are also set to make a cameo as Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark.
Francis Lawrence, who has directed every Hunger Games installment since 2012’s Catching Fire, returns to direct from a screenplay by Billy Ray. The story is set 24 years before the first Hunger Games film and follows Haymitch’s own early rebellion in the 50th Hunger Games, the notorious Second Quarter Quell.
Franchise Openings: Where a $100 Million Weekend Would Rank
To understand what is at stake, it helps to look at how the franchise has opened before. The first four films all cleared $100 million on their opening weekends: The Hunger Games opened to $152.5 million in 2012, Catching Fire to $158.1 million in 2013, Mockingjay — Part 1 to $121.9 million in 2014 and Mockingjay — Part 2 to $102.7 million in 2015. Only The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, at $44.6 million, broke that run.
An opening above $103 million would be the franchise’s biggest since Mockingjay — Part 2 in 2015, and an opening at the top of the current $80 million to $100 million range would sit just behind that film. Even the $80 million floor would be the second-best opening of the last decade for the series and a huge recovery from the 2023 prequel.
The release calendar also helps. With nothing as big as Wicked, Moana 2 or Zootopia 2 coming at the Thanksgiving box office, Sunrise on the Reaping is in a strong position. Its second weekend will compete with the Ariana Grande comedy Focker-In-Law and Disney’s Hexed, and Deadline says the prequel could beat both newcomers over the Wednesday to Sunday holiday stretch.
Budget Math: What Lionsgate Needs From the Opening
The film needs a big result. Its budget is reported at between $170 million and $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million. Opening in the $80 million to $100 million range would put Lionsgate in a good position to make that back, especially with a Thanksgiving second weekend ahead of it.
That is why the presale numbers matter so much. A strong opening weekend does more than cover costs — it sets the tone for the film’s entire run, drives premium-format bookings in IMAX and Dolby Cinema, and decides whether the franchise has a future beyond this prequel. If presales keep up their current pace, Haymitch’s story could become the franchise’s biggest opening in more than a decade, and the first $100 million-plus domestic opener the market has seen in some time.
When and Where to Watch Sunrise on the Reaping
Sunrise on the Reaping hits theatres on 20 November 2026, exactly 11 years after The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2 was released. The film opens in theatres and IMAX, with early-access screenings on 18 November starting at 6 pm local time, before the film opens nationwide on 20 November.
For the full release-date breakdown, cast list and story details, read our earlier guide to the Sunrise on the Reaping release date. The film is the sixth in the Hunger Games series and the second prequel, and it arrives just two weeks from now — with presales already suggesting it could be the Thanksgiving season’s biggest event.
When does The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping release?
The film releases in theatres and IMAX on 20 November 2026, with early-access screenings on 18 November from 6 pm local time.
What is the film’s opening weekend prediction?
Deadline puts the domestic opening floor at $80 million or more, with the current range at $80 million to $100 million. Some trackers, including Empire City Box Office, estimate an opening above $100 million.
Are its presales really ahead of Wicked?
Yes, according to Deadline’s exclusive update. At the same point in the sales cycle, Sunrise on the Reaping presales are ahead of Universal’s Wicked, and they are also ahead of Michael. They are the best advance sales Lionsgate has seen for any title since COVID.
Who plays Haymitch in Sunrise on the Reaping?
Joseph Zada stars as the young Haymitch Abernathy, with Whitney Peak as Lenore Dove Baird. The ensemble includes Jesse Plemons, Elle Fanning, Kieran Culkin, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Ralph Fiennes and Glenn Close.
Do Katniss and Peeta appear in the film?
Yes. Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are set to make a cameo as Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark in the prequel, which is set 24 years before the first Hunger Games film.
Is Sunrise on the Reaping based on a book?
Yes. It is based on Suzanne Collins’ 2025 novel of the same name, which sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week — the biggest debut for any book in the series.
Image Credit: Lionsgate — Official Trailer via YouTube
